Kitchin okirikiri. Short-okwu aku cycles. Juglar okirikiri. Kuznets okirikiri

The aku na uba na okirikiri - a mmajijiji uru nke oké ụlọ ngwaahịa ke ogologo okwu. Nke a ọnụ ma ọ bụ na-abawanye na GDP jikọtara ogbo nke development. E nwere ọtụtụ ụdị nke ndị dị otú oscillations, nke dị iche na ha oge. Ọtụtụ mkpụmkpụ-okwu - Kitchin okirikiri, oge nke nke - 3-5 afọ. Ọzọ economists na-amụ ajụjụ nke oké njọ mmepụta fluctuations. Ego nwekwara cycles Juglar, Kuznets na Kondratiev.

Key okwu

Na N'ezie nke ya mmepe, dị ka aku na uba bụ na ngwa mmepe oge na ọnọdụ na-achọghị. Kitchin okirikiri-akọwa na-adịghị adịte fluctuations. Kondratieff-efegharị efegharị na-ekpuchi ọkara narị afọ mgbanwe. The echiche nke azụmahịa okirikiri na a sara mbara uche pụtara a oge nke mejupụtara naanị otu oge nke mbili na ọdịda, na-eru onye ọ bụla ọzọ. Abụọ ndị a nzọụkwụ dị oké mkpa. Egosi nke mmalite na ọgwụgwụ nke okirikiri bụ pasent nke ibu nke ezigbo oké anụ ụlọ ngwaahịa. Mgbe a mgbe mgbe fluctuations na azụmahịa ọrụ bụ nnọọ na-ejighị n'aka.

History of ọmụmụ

Echiche nke akụ na ụba okirikiri e agọ site nnọchiteanya nke ndị oge gboo akwụkwọ. Ha na-adị, na omume, ha na-kọwara site agha na esemokwu. Mbụ ha enyoba site Sismondi. Ya ọrụ e tinyeworo na ụjọ nke 1825 na England, nke bụ nke mbụ na aku nsogbu mere na peacetime. Sismondi na ya otu Robert Owen kpọrọ ya kpatara overproduction na underconsumption, mere site disparities na nkesa ego n'etiti ndị bi na. Ha bụ ndị na ihu ọma nke ala aka na aku na uba na socialism. Na agụmakwụkwọ okirikiri, ọrụ ha bụ ozugbo na-ewu ewu. Otú ọ dị, na echiche na n'okpuru-oriri na-akpata nsogbu, mgbe ahụ, a ga-ewu a maara nke ọma Keynesian akwụkwọ. Sismondi ozizi e mepụtara site Charles Dunoyer. Ọ tinye n'ihu echiche nke agbanwe cycles. Karl Marx hụrụ oge ọdụdọ dị ka isi nsogbu nke ọ bụla ikeketeorie ọha mmadụ na-atụghị anya na Kọmunist mgbanwe. Genri Dzhordzh akpọ ntule na ala isi na-akpata recessions na-atụ aro iwebata otu tax na mmepụta ihe na-akpata.

iche cycles

Na 1860, French Economist Klement Zhyuglyar mbụ kọwara aku fluctuations na a ugboro ole nke 7-11 afọ. Yozef Shumpeter rụrụ ụka na ha iso nke anọ nkebi:

• Mgbasawanye. E nwere onye na-abawanye na mmepụta mpịakọta, na-ebili ahịa, mmasị udu-ada.
• Crisis. Mgbe a na ogbo, crumble na ngwaahịa mgbanwe, na ọtụtụ ulo oru na ụlọ ọrụ ndị na-aga odida.
• Nlaazu. Ịnye ọnụahịa na mmepụta mpịakọta-anọgide na-ada na mmasị udu, na iche, na-eto eto.
• Mgbake. Exchange re-mmalite na-arụ ọrụ site na ahịa na ego ọdịda.

Schumpeter jikọrọ akụ na ụba mgbake na uto nke mmepụta arụmọrụ, obi ike na-eme n'ọdịnihu na-eji ọkụ nke nchịkọta ina na ahịa. Ke n'etiti nke XX narị afọ, ọ chọrọ a typology nke cycles maka ha oge. N'etiti ha:

• Kitchin okirikiri. Ọ na-ewe 3 5 afọ.
• Juglar okirikiri. Ya oge - 7-11 afọ.
• Kuznets okirikiri. Ọ jikọtara investments na akụrụngwa. Ọ na-ewe 15 na 25 afọ.
• Kondrat'eva efegharị efegharị ma ọ bụ ogologo usoro okirikiri. Ọ na-ewe site 45 ruo afọ 60.

Taa, mmasị cycles ebelata ubé. Nke a bụ n'ihi na eziokwu na oge a macroeconomics anaghị akwado echiche nke mgbe oge oscillations.

Kitchin okirikiri

Ọ na-ewe banyere 40 ọnwa. Ndị a na-adịghị adịte fluctuations na-akpa nyochaworo site Joseph Kitchin n'oge 1920. Ya kpatara a na-ewere a nwa oge lag na ije ozi na-eduga na-egbu oge ime mkpebi sịrị. Firms eme ka mma na azụmahịa ọnọdụ site na ịba ụba mmepụta. Nke a na-full itinye n'ọrụ nke oru na isi obodo. N'ihi ya, mgbe a ụfọdụ oge, ahịa na-idei mmiri na ngwongwo. Ha àgwà-adị njọ n'ihi na iwu nke Kwuru. Ina dara, na price - otu ibu na-amalite na-ikpo ke n'ụlọ nkwakọba. Mgbe ụfọdụ oge, ụlọ ọrụ na-amalite ibelata mmepụta. Na-aga Kitchin okirikiri.

Akpata na ya pụta

Kitchin aku cycles metụtara na enweghị ohere nke ozugbo ntule nke ahịa ọnọdụ. Firms mkpa mgbe na-amalite na-amụba mmepụta, na-ekpebi ma belata ya olu. Igbu oge bụ n'ihi na eziokwu na-ewe mmadụ n'ọrụ anaghị ozugbo na-aghọta na-enwe ugbu a na ahịa - ọkọnọ ma ọ bụ ina. Mgbe ahụ, ha mkpa nakwa ịlele ozi. Ọ na-esetịpụ na mmejuputa iwu nke ngwọta na omume. Ọ bụghị otú ahụ mfe ozugbo chọta ọhụrụ ọrụ ma ọ bụ chụọ ndị ochie omume. N'ihi ya, na-adịghị adịte Kitchin okirikiri metụtara na a na-egbu oge na collection na nhazi nke ihe ọmụma.

Yozef Kitchin: Summary

Ọ bụ a British ọkachamara na ubi nke ọnụ ọgụgụ na-azụ ahịa. Yozef Kitchin-arụ ọrụ na Ngwuputa ụlọ ọrụ na South Africa. Na 1923 ọ malitere ịmụ otú na-adịghị adịte azụmahịa cycles na United Alaeze na United States na oge site na 1890 ka 1922. Ha oge bụ banyere 40 afọ. The results nke ya nnyocha, ọ depụtara ọrụ akpọ "Cycles na ọnọdụ akụ na ụba ihe." Na-ede na-akọwa ọnụnọ nke ndị dị otú ahụ vibrations psychological Jeremaya mere na ikeketeorie mode nke mmepụta na oge lags na nnyefe nke ozi na-emetụta usoro mkpebi sịrị. Na ndị ọzọ okwu, Kitchin okirikiri e ji ụkpụrụ nke ọkọnọ nke ngwaahịa site ụlọ ọrụ na usoro nke ha mkpa na ahịa.

A oge nke 7-11 afọ

Juglar okirikiri bụ ugboro abụọ karịa Kitchin. Ma ya adị ọkà mmụta sayensị ka azụ na 1862. Otu n'ime ihe ndị na-akpata mata fluctuations Juglar akpọ mgbanwe ego na ofu akụ, ọ bụghị nanị ndị dị larịị nke ọrụ. Na 2010, a na-amụ iji spektral analysis enen ịdị adị nke ndị dị otú ahụ cycles na Ọnọdụ nke ụwa oké anụ ụlọ ngwaahịa.

Kuznets okirikiri

Nke a oscillation ndimmadu. Ha na-akpa nyochara Simon Kuznets ke 1930s. Ha na-banyere 15-25 afọ. Ihe kpatara nke a cyclical na-ede akwụkwọ na-akpọ omume igwe mmadụ Filiks. O lere mwubata nke ekupụ na yiri ewu booms. Smith na-ji ha dị ka akụrụngwa ego cycles. Ụfọdụ oge a na economists ejikọta data cycles na afọ 18 fluctuations na uru na ala dị ka a na-akpata nke mmepụta. Mmepụta ha na-ahụ iwebata a pụrụ iche tax. Otú ọ dị, Fred Harrison ekwere na ọ dịghị aka ọbụna mitigate cyclicality. Na 1968 Hauri katọrọ ọmụmụ Kuznets. Ọ rụrụ ụka na-ezighị ezi data e nyochara na-. Otú ọ dị, Smith kwuru na cycles mata ha nwere ike hụrụ na uto nke ụwa oké anụ ụlọ ngwaahịa na enweghị ojiji nke nyo mepụtakwara ha.

research Kondratieff

Kasị ogologo azụmahịa cycles nwere a oge nke 45-60 afọ. Maara nke ọma Soviet Economist Kondratieff kweere na fluctuations-emetụta ihe nile ndi nke aku na uba. O lekwasịrị anya na ahịa, mmasị ọnụego. Onye ọ bụla okirikiri Kondratiev iche anọ nkebi. Isi index, nke ọ na-amụrụ, bụ mmepụta na okwu nke bara uru. Iji ụbọchị, e nwere ise ogologo ebili mmiri:

• Site 1890 na 1850, n'ihi na ọdịdị nke uzuoku engine na mmalite nke nile iji owu.
• Site 1850 na 1900. Isi engine ígwè okporo ígwè na ígwè mmepụta.
• Site 1900 na 1950 metụtara ọkụ eletrik nkesa na mmepe nke chemical ụlọ ọrụ.
• Site na 1950 ruo 1990 ndi ibu propulsive pharmaceuticals na ụgbọala.
• New ife jikọtara ozi na na nkwukọrịta technology ka engine nke na-enwe ọganihu.

Na mgbakwunye na nkà na ụzụ nkọwa, ụfọdụ ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị jikọrọ ogologo Kondratieff cycles na omume igwe mmadụ na mgbanwe, ntule na ala na ụgwọ deflation. E nwere ọtụtụ oge a na nsụgharị nke ozizi nke Soviet Economist. Ha nwere ike kewara abụọ iche iche. The mbụ na-elekwasị anya na mgbanwe na nkà na ụzụ. The abụọ na-enyocha otuto okirikiri. Otú ọ dị, ọtụtụ economists anaghị anabata ozizi Kondratieff ogologo mmiri na ebili mmiri. Ọbụna ihe controversial bụ gburugburu ihe afọ atụle mmalite nke ọ bụla okirikiri. Mmalite nke zuru ụwa ọnụ ego nsogbu dabara nke ọma na nchepụta Kondratieff, egosi na mmalite nke oge nke na-adakpọ.